Curriculum Vitae

Address

Carlisle Rainey
Department of Political Science
Texas A&M University
2051 Allen Building
4348 TAMU
College Station, TX 77843-4348

e-mail: crainey@tamu.edu
Twitter: twitter.com/carlislerainey
GitHub: github.com/carlislerainey

Current Appointments

  • Assistant Professor, Department of Political Science, Texas A&M University, July 2015 - present.
  • Director, Program in Scientific Political Methodology, Texas A&M University, July 2015 - present.

Previous Appointment

  • Assistant Professor, Department of Political Science, University at Buffalo, SUNY, August 2013 - July 2015.

Education

Florida State University

  • Ph.D., Political Science, 2013.
  • M.S., Mathematical Statistics, 2012.
  • M.S., Political Science, 2009.

Georgia Southwestern State University

  • B.S., Political Science and Sociology, 2008.

Published Papers

Forthcoming

  • Rainey, Carlisle and Robert Jackson. “Unreliable Inferences about Unobservable Processes: A Critique of Partial Observability Models.” Forthcoming at Political Science Research and Methods. [Paper] [GitHub]
  • Baissa, Daniel K. and Carlisle Rainey. “When BLUE Is Not Best: Non-Normal Errors and the Linear Model.” With Daniel K. Baissa. Forthcoming at Political Science Research and Methods. [Paper] [GitHub]

2017

  • Rainey, Carlisle. 2017. “Transformation-Induced Bias: Unbiased Coefficients Do Not Imply Unbiased Quantities of Interest.” Political Analysis 25(3): 402-409. [Paper] [Journal] [Dataverse] [GitHub]

2016

  • Rainey, Carlisle. 2016. “Dealing with Separation in Logistic Regression Models.” Political Analysis. 24(3): 339-355. [Paper] [Journal] [Slides] [Appendix] [GitHub] [Software]
  • Rainey, Carlisle. 2016. “Compression and Conditional Effects: A Product Term Is Essential When Using Logistic Regression to Test for Interaction.” Political Science Research and Methods. 4(3): 621-639. [Paper] [Appendix] [Journal] [GitHub]
  • Rainey, Carlisle. 2016. “Does District Magnitude Matter: The Case of Taiwan.” Electoral Studies. 41: 202-212. [Paper] [Journal] [Dataverse] [GitHub]

2015

  • McCaskey, Kelly and Carlisle Rainey. 2015. “Substantive Importance and the Veil of Statistical Significance.” Statistics, Politics, and Policy 6(1-2): 77-96. [Paper] [Journal] [GitHub]
  • Clifford, Scott, Jennifer Jerit, Matt Motyl, and Carlisle Rainey. 2015. “Moral Concerns and Culture War Attitudes: Investigating the Influence of Elite Rhetoric.” Political Communication. 32(2): 229-248. [Paper] [Journal]
  • Rainey, Carlisle. 2015. “Strategic Mobilization: Why Proportional Representation Decreases Voter Mobilization.” Electoral Studies. 37(1): 86-98. [Paper] [Appendix] [Journal] [Dataverse] [GitHub]

2014

  • Rainey, Carlisle. 2014. “Arguing for a Negligible Effect.” American Journal of Political Science 58(4): 1083-1091. [Paper] [Appendix] [Journal] [Dataverse [GitHub]
  • Barabas, Jason, Jennifer Jerit, William Pollock, and Carlisle Rainey. 2014. “The Question(s) of Political Knowledge.” American Political Science Review 108(4): 840-855. [Paper] [Journal] [Dataverse] [GitHub]
  • Barrilleaux, Charles and Carlisle Rainey. 2014. “The Politics of Need: Examining Governors’ Decisions to Oppose the ‘Obamacare’ Medicaid Expansion.” State Politics and Policy Quarterly. 14(4): 437-460. [Paper] [Appendix] [Journal] [Dataverse] [GitHub]

Unpublished Papers

In-Progress

  • “Modeling Misreports of Vote Choice: A Comparison of Alternative Approaches.” With Robert Jackson. [Paper] [GitHub]
  • “Tax Policy Changes in the American States.” With Kevin Stout and Richard F. Winters.

Under Review

  • “Estimating Logit Models with Small Samples.” With Kelly McCaskey. Invitation to revises and resubmit to Political Science Research and Methods. [Paper] [GitHub]

Software

  • compactr: an R package for creating graphs with compact axis notation. This package has been downloaded more than 9,000 times from the RStudio CRAN mirror. [Overview] [CRAN] [Github]
  • separation: an R package for handling separation by choosing an informative prior. [Background Paper] [GitHub]

Conference Presentations

  • “Dealing with Separation in Logistic Regression Models.”
    • Society for Political Methodology Annual Meeting, Rochester, NY, July 2015.
    • Southern Political Science Association Annual Conference, San Juan, PR, January 2016.
  • “Logistic Regression with Small Samples: Nearly Unbiased Estimation with Penalized Maximum Likelihood.” With Kelly McCaskey.
    • Society for Political Methodology Annual Meeting, Rochester, NY, July 2015.
  • “The Effects of Party Control, Electoral Cycles and Institutional Design on Tax Policy Changes.” With Kevin R. Stout and Richard F. Winters.
    • State Politics and Policy Conference, Sacramento, CA, May 2015.
    • Midwest Political Science Association Annual Conference, Chicago, April 2015.
  • “When BLUE Is Not Best: Non-Normal Errors and the Linear Model.”
    • Southern Political Science Association Annual Conference, San Juan, PR, January 2016.
      • Innovations in Comparative Political Methodology Conference at Texas A&M University, March 2015.
  • “Compression and Conditional Effects.”
    • Society for Political Methodology Annual Meeting, Athens, GA, July 2014.
    • American Political Science Association Annual Conference, Washington, D.C., August 2014.
  • “Strategic Mobilization: Why Disproportional Districts Increase Partisan Mobilization Efforts.”
    • Southern Political Science Association Annual Conference, Orlando, FL, January 2013.
    • American Political Science Association Annual Conference, Washington, D.C., August 2014.
  • “The Politics of Need: Examining Governors’ Decisions to Oppose the `Obamacare’ Medicaid Expansion.” With Charles Barrilleaux.
    • State Politics and Policy Conference, Bloomington, IN, May 2014.
  • “The Question(s) of Political Knowledge.” With Jason Barabas, Jennifer Jerit, and William Pollock.
    • European Political Science Association Annual Conference, Barcelona, June 2013.
    • Midwest Political Science Association Annual Conference, Chicago, April 2013.
  • “Moral Concerns and Culture War Attitudes: Investigating the Influence of Elite Rhetoric.” With Scott Clifford and Jennifer Jerit.
    • Midwest Political Science Association Annual Meeting, Chicago, April 2013.
  • “Arguing for a Negligible Effect.”
    • Society for Political Methodology Annual Meeting, Chapel Hill, NC, July 2012.
    • Southern Political Science Association Annual Conference, Orlando, FL, January 2013.
  • “Modeling Misreports in Self-Reported Vote Choice Data.” With Robert Jackson.
    • American Political Science Association Annual Conference, New Orleans, LA, August 2012 (Meeting Cancelled).
    • Southern Political Science Association Annual Conference, Orlando, FL, January 2013.
  • “Partial Observability Models of Over-Reporting Turn Out in Survey Data.” With Robert Jackson.
    • Southern Political Science Association Annual Conference, New Orleans, LA, January 2012.
    • Midwest Political Science Association Annual Conference, Chicago, IL, April 2012.
  • “Does Magnitude Matter? The Case of Taiwan.”
    • Midwest Political Science Association Annual Conference, Chicago, IL, April 2011.
    • Southern Political Science Association Annual Conference, New Orleans, LA, January 2012.

Grants and Awards

  • Artinian Award, 2016.
  • Dean’s Travel Fund for Untenured Faculty, 2014.
  • Congress of Graduate Students Travel Grant Award, Florida State University, 2011, 2012.
  • Graduate Assistantship, Florida State University Department of Political Science, 2008-2013.

Service

Reviewer

American Political Science Review (2015), American Journal of Political Science (2017, 2015, 2014-2x), Journal of Politics (2017, 2016, 2015), Political Analysis (2015), Research and Politics (2016), Party Politics (2012), State Politics and Policy Quarterly (2014, 2013-2x), Political Behavior (2014, 2015), Political Research Quarterly (2017), Political Science Research and Methods (2016, 2015, 2014), and Comparative Politics (2015), Comparative Political Studies (2016)

Discussant

Society for Political Methodology Annual Meeting (2014, 2015, 2016), Southern Political Science Association Annual Conference (2016)

Committees

Head’s Advisory Committee (2017-2018), Graduate Studies Committee (2013-15, UB), Methodology Search Committee (2014-2015, UB), American Politics Search Committee (2013-14, UB), Methodology Search Committee (2012-13, FSU)

Teaching

Experience

  • Introduction to Political Science Research Methods: Fall 2015 (2 sections, 19 students each), Spring 2017 (2 sections, 20 students each), Summer 2017 (scheduled for 1 section, 20 students), Fall 2017 (scheduled for 2 sections, 20 students each)
  • Introduction to American Government: Summer 2013 (2 sections), Fall 2013.
  • Introduction to Comparative Politics: Summer 2010, Summer 2011, Fall 2011, Spring 2012, Spring 2014, Spring 2015.
  • Empirical Political Science: Fall 2013, Fall 2014
  • Political Science Research Methods: Summer 2011, Summer 2012
  • Linear Models (Graduate): Spring 2014, Spring 2015.
  • Generalized Linear Models (Graduate): Fall 2010 (TA), Spring 2015.
  • An Introduction to R Programming: Fall 2010 (Lab Instructor).
  • A Brief Introduction to Hierarchical Models (Two Guest Lectures): Spring 2012, Fall 2013.

Interests

  • Substantive: Campaigns and Elections, Political Behavior, Political Parties, Comparative Electoral Institutions
  • Methods: Linear Models, Generalized Linear Models and Maximum Likelihood Estimation, Bayesian Inference and Hierarchical Models, Computational Methods (permutation tests, bootstrap, MCMC, Monte Carlo methods), Probability Theory

Technical Training

  • Methods training: probability theory (through measure-theoretic probability); experimental and survey design; linear and generalized linear models; likelihood-based, Bayesian, and non-parametric inference; hierarchical, dynamic, and time-series models; MCMC and other computationally-intensive methods
  • Formal theory training: Game theory, computational (agent-based) modeling, experimental economics
  • Programming: R, BUGS/JAGS, Stan, Git/GitHub, Matlab, Stata, LaTeX, Linux, z-Tree, Medialab, Qualtrix

References

Professor Robert Jackson
Professor of Political Science
Florida State University
Tallahassee, Florida
rjackson@fsu.edu

Professor Dave Siegel
Associate Professor of Political Science
Duke University
Durham, North Carolina
david.siegel@duke.edu

Professor John Ahlquist
Associate Professor
School of Global Policy and Strategy
University of California, San Diego
La Jolla, California
jahlquist@ucsd.edu

Professor Jason Barabas
Professor of Political Science
Stony Brook University
Stony Brook, New York
jason.barabas@stonybrook.edu