Curriculum Vitae

Address

Carlisle Rainey
Department of Political Science
Florida State University
600 W. College Avenue Tallahassee, FL 32306

e-mail: crainey@fsu.edu
Twitter: twitter.com/carlislerainey
GitHub: github.com/carlislerainey

Current Appointment

  • Associate Professor, Department of Political Science, Florida State University, July 2018 - present.

Previous Appointment

  • Assistant Professor, Department of Political Science, Texas A&M University, July 2015 - July 2018.
  • Director, Program in Scientific Political Methodology, Texas A&M University, July 2015 - July 2017.
  • Assistant Professor, Department of Political Science, University at Buffalo, SUNY, August 2013 - July 2015.

Education

Florida State University

  • Ph.D., Political Science, 2013.
  • M.S., Mathematical Statistics, 2012.
  • M.S., Political Science, 2009.

Georgia Southwestern State University

  • B.S., Political Science and Sociology, 2008.

Published Papers

Forthcoming

  • Baissa, Daniel K. and Carlisle Rainey. “When BLUE Is Not Best: Non-Normal Errors and the Linear Model.” With Daniel K. Baissa. Forthcoming at Political Science Research and Methods. [Paper] [GitHub]
  • “Estimating Logit Models with Small Samples.” With Kelly McCaskey. Forthcoming at Political Science Research and Methods. [Paper] [GitHub]

2018

  • Rainey, Carlisle and Robert Jackson. “Unreliable Inferences about Unobservable Processes: A Critique of Partial Observability Models.” Political Science Research and Methods 6(2): 381-391. [Paper] [Journal [GitHub]

2017

  • Rainey, Carlisle. 2017. “Transformation-Induced Bias: Unbiased Coefficients Do Not Imply Unbiased Quantities of Interest.” Political Analysis 25(3): 402-409. [Paper] [Journal] [Dataverse] [GitHub]

2016

  • Rainey, Carlisle. 2016. “Dealing with Separation in Logistic Regression Models.” Political Analysis. 24(3): 339-355. [Paper] [Journal] [Slides] [Appendix] [GitHub] [Software]
  • Rainey, Carlisle. 2016. “Compression and Conditional Effects: A Product Term Is Essential When Using Logistic Regression to Test for Interaction.” Political Science Research and Methods. 4(3): 621-639. [Paper] [Appendix] [Journal] [GitHub]
  • Rainey, Carlisle. 2016. “Does District Magnitude Matter: The Case of Taiwan.” Electoral Studies. 41: 202-212. [Paper] [Journal] [Dataverse] [GitHub]

2015

  • McCaskey, Kelly and Carlisle Rainey. 2015. “Substantive Importance and the Veil of Statistical Significance.” Statistics, Politics, and Policy 6(1-2): 77-96. [Paper] [Journal] [GitHub]
  • Clifford, Scott, Jennifer Jerit, Matt Motyl, and Carlisle Rainey. 2015. “Moral Concerns and Culture War Attitudes: Investigating the Influence of Elite Rhetoric.” Political Communication. 32(2): 229-248. [Paper] [Journal]
  • Rainey, Carlisle. 2015. “Strategic Mobilization: Why Proportional Representation Decreases Voter Mobilization.” Electoral Studies. 37(1): 86-98. [Paper] [Appendix] [Journal] [Dataverse] [GitHub]

2014

  • Rainey, Carlisle. 2014. “Arguing for a Negligible Effect.” American Journal of Political Science 58(4): 1083-1091. [Paper] [Appendix] [Journal] [Dataverse [GitHub]
  • Barabas, Jason, Jennifer Jerit, William Pollock, and Carlisle Rainey. 2014. “The Question(s) of Political Knowledge.” American Political Science Review 108(4): 840-855. [Paper] [Journal] [Dataverse] [GitHub]
  • Barrilleaux, Charles and Carlisle Rainey. 2014. “The Politics of Need: Examining Governors’ Decisions to Oppose the ‘Obamacare’ Medicaid Expansion.” State Politics and Policy Quarterly. 14(4): 437-460. [Paper] [Appendix] [Journal] [Dataverse] [GitHub]

Unpublished Papers

In-Progress

  • “Modeling Misreports of Vote Choice: A Comparison of Alternative Approaches.” With Robert Jackson. [Paper] [GitHub]
  • “Tax Policy Changes in the American States.” With Kevin Stout and Richard F. Winters.

Under Review

  • “Estimating Logit Models with Small Samples.” With Kelly McCaskey. Conditionally accepted at Political Science Research and Methods. [Paper] [GitHub]

Software

  • compactr: an R package for creating graphs with compact axis notation. This package has been downloaded more than 9,000 times from the RStudio CRAN mirror. [Overview] [CRAN] [Github]
  • separation: an R package for handling separation by choosing an informative prior. [Background Paper] [GitHub]

Conference Presentations

  • “Dealing with Separation in Logistic Regression Models.”
    • Society for Political Methodology Annual Meeting, Rochester, NY, July 2015.
    • Southern Political Science Association Annual Conference, San Juan, PR, January 2016.
  • “Logistic Regression with Small Samples: Nearly Unbiased Estimation with Penalized Maximum Likelihood.” With Kelly McCaskey.
    • Society for Political Methodology Annual Meeting, Rochester, NY, July 2015.
  • “The Effects of Party Control, Electoral Cycles and Institutional Design on Tax Policy Changes.” With Kevin R. Stout and Richard F. Winters.
    • State Politics and Policy Conference, Sacramento, CA, May 2015.
    • Midwest Political Science Association Annual Conference, Chicago, April 2015.
  • “When BLUE Is Not Best: Non-Normal Errors and the Linear Model.”
    • Southern Political Science Association Annual Conference, San Juan, PR, January 2016.
      • Innovations in Comparative Political Methodology Conference at Texas A&M University, March 2015.
  • “Compression and Conditional Effects.”
    • Society for Political Methodology Annual Meeting, Athens, GA, July 2014.
    • American Political Science Association Annual Conference, Washington, D.C., August 2014.
  • “Strategic Mobilization: Why Disproportional Districts Increase Partisan Mobilization Efforts.”
    • Southern Political Science Association Annual Conference, Orlando, FL, January 2013.
    • American Political Science Association Annual Conference, Washington, D.C., August 2014.
  • “The Politics of Need: Examining Governors’ Decisions to Oppose the `Obamacare’ Medicaid Expansion.” With Charles Barrilleaux.
    • State Politics and Policy Conference, Bloomington, IN, May 2014.
  • “The Question(s) of Political Knowledge.” With Jason Barabas, Jennifer Jerit, and William Pollock.
    • European Political Science Association Annual Conference, Barcelona, June 2013.
    • Midwest Political Science Association Annual Conference, Chicago, April 2013.
  • “Moral Concerns and Culture War Attitudes: Investigating the Influence of Elite Rhetoric.” With Scott Clifford and Jennifer Jerit.
    • Midwest Political Science Association Annual Meeting, Chicago, April 2013.
  • “Arguing for a Negligible Effect.”
    • Society for Political Methodology Annual Meeting, Chapel Hill, NC, July 2012.
    • Southern Political Science Association Annual Conference, Orlando, FL, January 2013.
  • “Modeling Misreports in Self-Reported Vote Choice Data.” With Robert Jackson.
    • American Political Science Association Annual Conference, New Orleans, LA, August 2012 (Meeting Cancelled).
    • Southern Political Science Association Annual Conference, Orlando, FL, January 2013.
  • “Partial Observability Models of Over-Reporting Turn Out in Survey Data.” With Robert Jackson.
    • Southern Political Science Association Annual Conference, New Orleans, LA, January 2012.
    • Midwest Political Science Association Annual Conference, Chicago, IL, April 2012.
  • “Does Magnitude Matter? The Case of Taiwan.”
    • Midwest Political Science Association Annual Conference, Chicago, IL, April 2011.
    • Southern Political Science Association Annual Conference, New Orleans, LA, January 2012.

Grants and Awards

  • Artinian Award, 2016.
  • Dean’s Travel Fund for Untenured Faculty, 2014.
  • Congress of Graduate Students Travel Grant Award, Florida State University, 2011, 2012.
  • Graduate Assistantship, Florida State University Department of Political Science, 2008-2013.

Service

Reviewer

American Political Science Review, American Journal of Political Science , Journal of Politics , Political Analysis , Comparative Politics, Comparative Political Studies, International Studies Quarterly, Party Politics, Political Behavior, Political Research Quarterly, Political Science Research and Methods, Research and Politics , State Politics and Policy Quarterly.

Discussant

Society for Political Methodology Annual Meeting (2014, 2015, 2016), Southern Political Science Association Annual Conference (2016)

Committees

Head’s Advisory Committee (2017-2018), Graduate Studies Committee (2013-15, UB), Methodology Search Committee (2014-2015, UB), American Politics Search Committee (2013-14, UB), Methodology Search Committee (2012-13, FSU)

Teaching

Experience

  • Introduction to Political Science Research Methods (Undergraduate): Fall 2015, Spring 2017, Summer 2017, Fall 2017, Spring 2019.
  • Introduction to Political Science Research Methods (Graduate): Fall 2018.
  • Introduction to American Government: Summer 2013 (2 sections), Fall 2013.
  • Introduction to Comparative Politics: Summer 2010, Summer 2011, Fall 2011, Spring 2012, Spring 2014, Spring 2015.
  • Empirical Political Science: Fall 2013, Fall 2014
  • Political Science Research Methods: Summer 2011, Summer 2012
  • Linear Models (Graduate): Spring 2014, Spring 2015.
  • Generalized Linear Models (Graduate): Fall 2010 (TA), Spring 2015.
  • An Introduction to R Programming: Fall 2010 (Lab Instructor).
  • A Brief Introduction to Hierarchical Models (Two Guest Lectures): Spring 2012, Fall 2013.

Interests

  • Substantive: Campaigns and Elections, Political Behavior, Political Parties, Comparative Electoral Institutions
  • Methods: Linear Models, Generalized Linear Models and Maximum Likelihood Estimation, Bayesian Inference and Hierarchical Models, Computational Methods (permutation tests, bootstrap, MCMC, Monte Carlo methods), Probability Theory

Technical Training

  • Methods training: probability theory (through measure-theoretic probability); experimental and survey design; linear and generalized linear models; likelihood-based, Bayesian, and non-parametric inference; hierarchical, dynamic, and time-series models; MCMC and other computationally-intensive methods
  • Formal theory training: Game theory, computational (agent-based) modeling, experimental economics
  • Programming: R, Stan, git/GitHub, Matlab, Stata, LaTeX, Linux, z-Tree, Medialab, Qualtrix