Unpublished Papers


  • “Unreliable Inferences about Unobservable Processes: A Critique of Partial Observability Models.” With Robert Jackson. [Paper] [GitHub]
  • “Modeling Misreports of Vote Choice: A Comparison of Alternative Approaches.” With Robert Jackson. [Paper] [GitHub]
  • “When BLUE Is Not Best: Non-Normal Errors and the Linear Model.” With Daniel K. Baissa. [Paper] [GitHub]

Under Review

  • “Estimating Logit Models with Small Samples.” With Kelly McCaskey. [Paper] [GitHub]
  • “Dealing with Separation in Logistic Regression Models.” [Paper] [GitHub] [Software]
  • “Transformation-Induced Bias: Unbiased Coefficients Do Not Imply Unbiased Quantities of Interest.” [Paper] [GitHub]

Published Papers


  • McCaskey, Kelly and Carlisle Rainey. “Substantive Importance and the Veil of Statistical Significance.” McCaskey]( Statistics, Politics, and Policy. Accepted. [Paper] [GitHub]
  • Rainey, Carlisle. “Does District Magnitude Matter: The Case of Taiwan.” Electoral Studies. Accepted. [Paper] [Journal] [Dataverse] [GitHub]
  • Rainey, Carlisle. “Compression and Conditional Effects: A Product Term Is Essential When Using Logistic Regression to Test for Interaction.” Political Science Research and Methods. Accepted. [Paper] [Appendix] [GitHub]


  • Clifford, Scott, Jennifer Jerit, Matt Motyl, and Carlisle Rainey. 2015. “Moral Concerns and Culture War Attitudes: Investigating the Influence of Elite Rhetoric.” Political Communication. 32(2): 229-248. [Paper] [Journal]
  • Rainey, Carlisle. 2015. “Strategic Mobilization: Why Proportional Representation Decreases Voter Mobilization.” Electoral Studies. 37(1): 86-98. [Paper] [Appendix] [Journal] [Dataverse] [GitHub]


  • Rainey, Carlisle. 2014. “Arguing for a Negligible Effect.” American Journal of Political Science 58(4): 1083-1091. [Paper] [Appendix] [Journal] [Dataverse [GitHub]
  • Barabas, Jason, Jennifer Jerit, William Pollock, and Carlisle Rainey. 2014. “The Question(s) of Political Knowledge.” American Political Science Review 108(4): 840-855. [Paper] [Journal] [Dataverse] [GitHub]
  • Barrilleaux, Charles and Carlisle Rainey. 2014. “The Politics of Need: Examining Governors’ Decisions to Oppose the ‘Obamacare’ Medicaid Expansion.” State Politics and Policy Quarterly. 14(4): 437-460. [Paper] [Appendix] [Journal] [GitHub]